In Focus: Tax planning  

NIC increase will not raise 'anything like the £25bn stated', warns IFS

On spending and growth, which many of the tax measures were designed to achieve, he was sceptical, calling the additional spending announced "incredibly front loaded".

"Much the most striking aspect of the spending decisions is how incredibly front loaded the additional spending is," he said.

Article continues after advert

"Day-to-day public service spending, after inflation and the additional cost to public sector employers of rising NI, is set to rise by 4.3 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent next year, but then by just 1.3 per cent each year thereafter.

"1.3 per cent a year overall would almost certainly mean real terms cuts for some departments. It would be odd to increase spending rapidly only to start cutting back again in subsequent years."

Growth enhancing areas such as transport were not doing so well, he pointed out.

But he added: "To be clear, the focus on investment and on the long term is welcome.

"But there are some important details to be filled in at the spring spending review, and it remains to be seen the extent to which this additional investment will be laser-focused on growth."

carmen.reichman@ft.com