“The fiscal impact of your growth plan significantly exceeds that of a typical Budget and yet there was no OBR forecast to accompany it.
“It is hard to conclude other than that an absence of a forecast has in some part driven the lack of confidence in the markets.”
Following Kwarteng’s mini-Budget on last week (September 23), the pound crashed to a historic low and gilt markets soared causing swap rates - a lead indicator for mortgage rates - to jump.
This has pushed up mortgage interest rates by as much as 1.5 per cent in days, and seen lenders pull hundreds of products in order to try and reprice them.
The Bank of England also had to step in this week to steady the gilt market after acknowledging “a material risk to UK financial stability” if it did not act.
The Committee suggested the government’s decision not to publish a full forecast along with its mini-Budget might have been because a full forecast would not have supported the tax cuts and projections of 2.5 per cent growth.
“Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the Government expects from the Growth Plan,” said Stride.
“Independent forecasts are an essential component of both accountability and demonstrating fiscal credibility to markets and the public.”
ruby.hinchliffe@ft.com
