Over the next couple of years, we expect Europe to wean itself off dependence on Russian gas, but probably leaving energy costs higher than before – meaning a loss of competitiveness for manufacturers.
Asia could be the surprise for 2023
Asian equities look relatively cheap (especially compared with American equities). China seems to be slowly recovering from Covid (and willing to try new vaccines) and Beijing is trying to restart the building sector.
As the Yen has fallen sharply to levels last seen in the 1980s, Japanese exporters are enjoying a riser in competitiveness. The return of inflation may allow the ending of ultra-low Japanese interest rates and a recovery in the value of assets in dollar terms.
By Simon Edelstenm, fund manager of the Artemis Global Select strategy
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