Political developments in the United States will have “profound implications” on the UK, according to Professor Anand Menon, director at UK in a Changing Europe.
Speaking at the Defaqto conference, Menon said the world is “in flux” in some “very profound” ways at the moment.
While he acknowledged that much of that flux will pass the UK by, such as some developments in the Indian Ocean, Menon said changes that are happening in the United States will have “profound implications”.
As a result of this, Menon said that the UK government is going to have to “swim against some pretty strong headwinds to make meaningful change”.
Explaining these profound implications, Menon clarified the challenges and changes that could occur as a result of Donald Trump securing another presidential term in the upcoming election on November 5.
“Trump two will be nothing at all like Trump one. Trump’s first term was kind of like a dress rehearsal,” he said.
He explained that a lot of things the former president attempted to do during his term in office were stopped by moderate people in key ministerial and advisory positions.
“They would say things like ‘we’ll think about it Mr President’ and hoped he would forget which, quite often, he did,” Menon stated.
However, Menon cautioned that, if the former president were to secure a second term in the upcoming election, he would be able to act with more efficiency as “the plan for next time is not to have moderates”.
He explained that, instead, there will be “Trump acolytes” appointed to key roles in Washington allowing for smoother delivery.
“This Trump presidency will be a lot more radical than the last one and that will have all sorts of implications for us in terms of tariffs, in terms of internal conflict inside the United States."
However, Menon pointed out that Europeans may face difficulties no matter which candidate claims victory in November.
“Whoever wins the next Presidential election, the United States is changing,” he explained.
“It is less in favour of free trade than it ever was.
“‘America first’ is something that even the Democrats say these days and, back in 2016, Hillary Clinton ran on an explicitly protectionist programme.
“The US is not going to go back to being the US of the 1930s and 1940s. “
Menon pointed out a similar trend is present with security.
“When it comes to security for the cold war, America was led by Presidents who had often served in the Second World War, who had real experience of Europe, whose commitment to Europe was front and centre of their foreign policies.
“However, that is no longer the case and whether it is a republican or a democrat that runs the United States, Europeans are going to have to do more to ensure their own security.”
tom.dunstan@ft.com
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