Introduction
This multi-year explosion in income investing of course dates back to when the Bank of England first placed its base interest rate at 0.5 per cent for the first time some four years ago, forcing savers to take on more risk than simply leaving their cash on deposit with the bank.
Recent years have seen investors flock towards fixed income funds - the IMA Sterling Corporate Bond sector dominated for six months last year and the IMA Strategic Bond sector a further two.
But, with yields on corporate bonds becoming depressed, investors are returning to the sacred ground of equities. The question is, are they right to do so?
Chris Iggo, chief investment officer of fixed income at Axa Investment Managers, says: “If you are worried about not making much money in an asset class then government bonds are rightly the asset class to avoid.
“However, if you are concerned about losing money in an asset class then bonds should allow much more sleep than the equity markets. Of course, equities are benefitting hugely from reflationary policies and I would argue that the ongoing re-rating of stock markets is more of a reflection of that than of a high level of conviction about future earnings growth in a very tepid economy.”
He explains that there are plenty of downside risks to growth that could cause it to dIsappoint.
“The US fiscal debacle, the potential for another debt flare up in recessionary Europe, and an inflationary shock in emerging markets? Under such a scenario equities could suffer a significant set-back while high grade bonds would be protected by safe-haven flows and more QE,” he adds.
According to Peter Lees, director of equities at F&C Investments, in normal times, we would be mid-way through an economic cycle and approaching the phase where companies should be looking to grow. He argues however that this is far from a normal cycle and agrees with Mr Iggo that there remain a number of issues that continue to cloud the situation.
“The consensus across most markets is that inflation is on the rise, playing into the hands of equity investors, as the real assets equities represent have the potential to perform and continue to deliver a ‘real’ return, something traditional bonds will struggle to do,” he says.
“Equity markets are reasonably valued following the recovery we have seen in the closing months of 2012 and at the start of 2013 – not cheap but by no means expensive. The yield delivered by equities should also mean an underpinning to values as investors and asset allocators look for an attractive and reliable income stream over the long-term, something high quality sovereign debt is unable to do at present and seems unlikely to be able to do for some time.”
The decision ultimately lies with the investor - after conversations with their adviser of course. But with so much uncertainty in the markets, perhaps now isn’t the time to choose one over the other.
In this special report
Younger investors are turning to income
The trials of the UK equity income sector
UK government bonds – have they really lost their shine?
Quarterly dividend payments on the up
How to be smarter on income sources
Fears of a bubble in the bond market continue to persist
Investors go global in search for income
Europe is now attractively valued